Australia: $11 trillion in residential, an affordability ceiling

Australian residential real estate is now valued at $11 trillion and represents 56 per cent of household wealth. The debt-to-income ratio has returned to near-peak levels at 7.9 times the median wage. Acquiring an average property on an average wage now requires roughly eight times annual income.

Construction is not keeping pace. The 1.2 million new-homes target by 2029 is unlikely. Completed dwellings have fallen 8.8 per cent year on year. Affordability and rental affordability will remain pressured.

The cash rate is on hold at 4.35 per cent. After 12 consecutive rises, cuts are expected, but the consensus has shifted to early 2025. CBA is the outlier predicting a December cut, but recent jobs data makes that unlikely. Inflation is improving, though underlying inflation is unlikely to be in the RBA’s target range until 2026.

State-by-state divergence

Melbourne, continued declines for several quarters; auction clearance rates softening.
Sydney, flat; momentum has cooled.
Adelaide, strongest performer, though plateauing.
Brisbane, 2.7 per cent quarter growth, the lowest rolling-quarter growth since March 2023, after 20 consecutive months of growth. Signs of a peak.

Listings are increasing across the country. In softer markets, the absorption isn’t there. In Noosa, demand is still able to absorb the rising stock.

Noosa: shifting from seller’s market to balanced

A three-speed market remains the right framing:

Entry level (around $1M), multiple offers, strong investor interest in establishing a Noosa foothold.
Mid market ($1.5M to $5M), most exposed to interest rates and lending restrictions; the segment with the most negotiation opportunity.
Prestige market, recent listings include $35M on Noosa Sound and $21.5M on Gympie Terrace. At this end, independent representation matters: the sales agent represents the vendor.

Stock has lifted, days on market has lengthened, but buyer demand has been sufficient to absorb new stock. Noosa has shifted from a seller’s market to a balanced one. It is unlikely to move into a buyer’s market in the way Melbourne has, the four-to-five-year run of historically low stock has built a long pipeline of unmet demand.

Median prices, Noosa and Hinterland

Noosa Heads, just over $2M
Sunshine Beach, just under $3M
Sunrise Beach and Noosaville, around $1.8M
Tewantin, $1.1M (steady growth driven by entry-level activity)
Peregian Beach, $1.575M (more moderate growth)
Hinterland (Eumundi, Cooroy, Pomona, Kin Kin), buyers pushing inland for affordability, with options around $1.1M

Notable recent results

3 Allambi Rise, Little Cove, $16.9M
Hastings Street apartment, $12.5M
Seaview Terrace (south end), $13.1M
33 Saltwater Avenue, Noosaville, $9.3M
Hilton Terrace, Tewantin, $2.65M (new build)
Noosa Sound, $35M (listing)
Pine Avenue, Tewantin, $785,000 (entry level)
California Boulevard, Peregian Beach, entry level
Wedgetail Lane, Noosaville, $1.03M (advertised at $930,000; competition lifted price on first open)

How a Noosa Buyers Agent helps

Noosa is a complex pricing market, with significant variance across pockets and price points. A buyers agent operates independently of any sales agent. Vendee handles the search, including pre-market and off-market opportunities, applies a forensic due diligence process to avoid costly mistakes, and negotiates on the buyer’s behalf for the best possible outcome.

If you would like to discuss your Noosa acquisition, book a complimentary consultation with Amanda or contact Vendee Property Buyers.